Job volumes are accelerating again, amid a better understanding of tariffs.

Job postings - May 2025

After peaking by the end of January 2025, job posting volumes have been declining gradually as uncertainty rattled the markets following the on-off tariffs announcements.

However, after bottoming at the end of April 2025, it would seem that job postings are accelerating again (the 4 largest provinces are shown in the chart below where 100 = pre-covid levels).

How does it look per province?

Without much surprise, Ontario has suffered the most as the province has been hardly hit by tariffs in the auto sector, which mainly impacted the Windsor area. Alberta, heavily relying on commidities such as oil & gas, has caught up to the same level than pre-tariffs, while Quebec is also accelerating sharply despite being impacted by tariffs on steel and aluminum. Firms have reported that orders have not dropped despite increased tariffs as US companies absorbing that production do not have sufficient alternatives.

So what’s next?

There are a few spots in the economy that are still showing quite some resilience: consumer spending is holding up, just like retail sales. The absence of reciprocal tariffs for Canada is also putting the country into a better spot than most of the rest of the world. The new ruling from the Supreme Court on the “illegality” of reciprocal tariffs will likely generate a new wind of hope on markets.

Even though unemployment has increased recently to 6.9%, as companies are looking to hire again, the brakes on immigration will likely render markets tighter again on the medium term.