Before the wave hits: positioning staffing firms for Canada’s global economic shift

When Donald Trump announced yet another wave of tariffs on Canadian goods, it served as a sharp wake-up call. For decades, Canada’s economic map has pointed south: roughly three-quarters of its exports head to the U.S., and large chunks of its manufacturing, energy and resource flows move across the border.  But as U.S. trade policy becomes more erratic, the Canadian government and business community have begun to ask: can we decouple our fortunes from that neighbour and build stronger links to Europe, Asia and beyond?

What Has Been Done

On paper, the steps are many. The federal government has framed an “export diversification” agenda, aiming to boost shipments to non-U.S. markets. Trade agreements already provide preferential access to more than 1.5 billion consumers across 50+ countries. Canada has launched trade missions to Indo-Pacific markets and is actively negotiating possible agreements with Southeast Asian blocs. Infrastructure planning is being revisited to better align with global supply chains rather than simply shipping across the border through traditional routes. Internally, Ottawa has signalled that removing inter-provincial trade and regulatory barriers is part of the strategy; the logic: if you cannot easily move goods or labour within Canada, you will be less nimble in shifting your business model abroad. 

What Progress Looks Like

And there are early signs of movement. In March 2025, Canadian exports to non-U.S. destinations jumped 24.8 per cent month-on-month, one of the largest rises on record.  The share of exports flowing to the United States eased from earlier levels (though still extremely high); in May the U.S. share was about 68.3 per cent, down from around 75.9 per cent. These shifts suggest companies are indeed exploring other markets, and that the government’s rhetoric is being matched by activity.

What’s Blocking and Why It’s Hard

Still, the path is both steep and winding. Several structural factors impede a rapid pivot:

1. Entrenched U.S. Integration: Many Canadian industries are deeply woven with U.S. supply-chains: manufactured goods, energy, parts for autos, all flow relatively seamlessly southwards. Breaking that takes time, investment and new relationships.  
2. Geography and Logistics: The easiest export destination remains the U.S., simply because of proximity and lower shipping/logistic costs. Overseas markets impose higher freight, regulatory, language and business-culture costs.  
3. Trade Infrastructure and Value Chains: To redirect trade successfully, Canada must reshape not just who it trades with, but how. The ports, rail links, regulatory frameworks and financing models need upgrades. That takes years.  
4. Dependency in Focus Sectors: Energy and auto remain heavily U.S.-centric: for example in 2024, 88 per cent of Canadian energy exports went to the U.S.  
5. Scale and Speed Mismatch: Even where exports to other markets are growing, the baseline is small. Diversification may reduce U.S. dependence but it cannot erase it overnight. Economists caution that the U.S. will remain the dominant partner for the foreseeable future.  

Labour Market Repercussions: When and Where

From a labour market vantage point, the decoupling strategy can be expected to manifest in a few key ways although with a lag.