When the talent pyramid flattens: the consulting shift

The consulting and professional services sector is quietly entering one of its most important workforce transitions in years. After decades of relying on a classic pyramid shaped model built on large graduate intakes and steady advancement, the largest firms are freezing starting salaries, trimming junior hiring, and reshaping their workforce structures around smaller teams supported by automation and AI. Three consecutive years of unchanged entry level pay, combined with reports of shrinking analyst cohorts, point to a sector in the midst of redesigning how work gets done.

Behind these moves sits a profound shift in the economics of advisory work. Generative AI has swallowed much of the document heavy and data heavy tasks that once kept new graduates busy. Research compilation, deck preparation, benchmarking, scenario building, and even parts of market sizing can now be generated or accelerated with tools that operate in seconds. What remains is work that requires judgment, domain depth and client presence, and these tasks often sit with mid level and senior consultants rather than first year analysts.

This transition is creating a new shape for consulting talent, often described internally as an hourglass or a box. Instead of large pools of juniors supporting a thin mid level and a wide partner class, firms are building leaner teams with fewer entry level staff, a reinforced mid layer of experienced contributors, and smaller but more specialised pools of technical talent supporting project teams. The commercial logic is simple. Clients are becoming more comfortable with AI generated materials and more reluctant to pay for large analyst teams. They want faster delivery, clearer expertise, and smaller rosters.

What impact on jobs?

The impact on the labour market is immediate. University graduates entering business, finance, data and strategy streams are facing a backlog of candidates competing for fewer analyst positions. Many shift their search into adjacent industries such as financial services, corporate strategy, venture backed firms and provincial agencies, creating spillover competition across the white collar market. Meanwhile, demand for mid career specialists is rising. Firms still need people who can guide client workshops, validate AI outputs, manage complex workstreams and translate technical insights into business recommendations. These are not entry level tasks.

For staffing firms, this shift creates a very different opportunity set than previous consulting cycles. Traditional campus recruitment volume is unlikely to recover quickly. Instead, the strongest demand is emerging in project based roles linked to transformation, data engineering, AI readiness, change management, cyber governance and specialised sector advisory. Many clients want senior contractors who can join for a twelve or eighteen month mandate and plug into small teams that are already using AI tools as part of normal workflow. These contractors are often more cost effective than hiring full time staff in a slower revenue environment.