A Flat Quarter for Job Vacancies Hides a Shifting Hiring Mix

For staffing firms hoping the first quarter's rebound in job vacancies marked the start of a new hiring cycle, Statistics Canada's latest reading offers a more measured answer: not yet, but the ground is shifting.

According to the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey released on September 15, Canadian employers were recruiting for 510,200 vacant positions in the second quarter of 2026, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter. That followed a revised gain of 13,300 openings (+2.7%) in the first quarter, which had been the first quarterly increase since the spring of 2022. Year over year, overall vacancies were also little changed.

The job vacancy rate, which measures open positions as a share of total labour demand, held at 2.8% for another quarter, matching both the first quarter and the second quarter of 2025. For context, the rate peaked above 5.5% in the second quarter of 2022, when employers were chasing nearly one million unfilled jobs.

The headline, in other words, describes a labour market idling in neutral. The detail tells a more useful story for anyone in the business of placing workers.

Employers are hiring, just not by posting more jobs

Total labour demand, the sum of filled and vacant positions, rose by 58,100 (+0.3%) in the quarter and by 181,100 (+1.0%) from a year earlier. In both cases the gains came almost entirely from payroll employment rather than new openings.

That distinction matters. Employers are adding headcount and filling the roles they post, rather than letting requisitions pile up. The survey's measure of slack points the same way: there were 3.0 unemployed people for every job vacancy, unchanged from the first quarter and down only slightly from 3.1 a year earlier. Two years ago, at the height of the post-pandemic shortage, that ratio sat close to one.

For recruiters, a ratio of three candidates per opening is a buyer's market. Clients have options, and the urgency premium that fuelled search fees and aggressive temp bill rates in 2022 has largely evaporated.

Positions are filling faster than at any point since 2021

The clearest evidence of that shift is in how long jobs stay open. The share of long-term vacancies, meaning positions employers have been trying to fill for 90 days or more, fell to 25.9% in the second quarter, down 2.1 percentage points from 28.0% in the first quarter. Statistics Canada said this was the lowest level since the second quarter of 2021, and well below the peak of 39.5% reached in late 2022 (figures not seasonally adjusted).

Hard-to-fill roles have historically been the core of the value proposition for permanent placement and executive search. When fewer positions linger past the three-month mark, fewer clients reach the point where an internal talent team concedes defeat and calls an outside firm. Agencies leaning heavily on perm revenue should read this as a signal to sharpen their specialization, because the generalist "we can fill it faster" pitch has less room to work with.

Temporary roles buck the flat trend

One segment moved against the grain. Vacancies for temporary positions rose by 4,000 (+4.4%) year over year, while openings for permanent, full-time and part-time jobs were little changed. On a quarterly basis, part-time vacancies also edged up by 3,600 (+2.8%).

This is a familiar pattern at an uncertain point in the cycle. Employers who need capacity but lack conviction about the economic outlook tend to reach for flexible labour before committing to permanent headcount. For the temporary help sector, which has absorbed several difficult years of softening demand, a sustained rise in temp vacancies would be among the more encouraging developments in the data, though one quarter does not yet make a trend.

Trades and light industrial lead the gains

By occupation, the most notable year-over-year growth came in trades, transport and equipment operators, where vacancies stood at 98,600 in the second quarter. That group posted a year-over-year increase of roughly 6,500 to 7,100 openings, depending on which section of the release one reads (see note below), making it the largest gain of any broad occupational group.

Within it, the detailed figures read like a light industrial staffing desk's order book. Vacancies for material handlers rose by 2,100 to 9,200, residential and commercial installers and servicers by 1,200 to 2,900, and transport truck drivers by 1,200 to 13,800 (not seasonally adjusted).

Sales and service occupations also added 4,000 vacancies (+2.6%) year over year, and manufacturing and utilities occupations rose by 3,200 (+19.2%), the steepest proportional increase among the broad groups.

Natural and applied sciences recorded its second consecutive quarterly increase, rising by 1,800 (+4.5%) to 42,300, after six quarters of little change. Year over year, the group was up 2,400 (+6.0%), led by software developers and programmers (+900 to 3,500), user support technicians (+500 to 2,400) and construction estimators (+400 to 1,200). The numbers are modest, but after a prolonged freeze in technology hiring, IT staffing firms will welcome any sustained thaw.

Public sector and health care continue to cool

The declines were concentrated in areas that drove demand earlier in the decade. Vacancies in education, law and social, community and government services fell by 2,000 (-4.6%) from the previous quarter and by 6,500 (-13.3%) from a year earlier, the largest annual drop of any group. Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations lost 1,300 openings (-10.4%) quarter over quarter.

Health occupations were down 5,500 (-7.9%) year over year. Health care staffing, which grew rapidly during the pandemic and has since faced tighter regulatory scrutiny in several provinces, is now contending with softer underlying demand as well.

The education premium reverses

Perhaps the most striking finding in the release concerns the qualifications employers are seeking.

Vacancies for positions requiring a high school diploma or less rose by 7,000 (+2.4%) year over year, the first annual increase at that education level since the third quarter of 2022. Openings requiring a trade certificate or diploma climbed by 2,700 (+3.9%). Meanwhile, vacancies for positions requiring a bachelor's degree or higher fell by 5,100 (-5.9%).

The candidate supply picture diverges just as sharply. There were 1.7 unemployed people for every vacancy requiring a trade certificate or diploma, the tightest ratio of any education level. For roles requiring a university degree, the ratio was 4.9, unchanged from a year earlier.

For staffing firms, this is a map of where scarcity still exists. Placing skilled tradespeople remains a genuine supply problem that clients will pay to solve. Placing degree holders, by contrast, means competing in a crowded pool where employers can afford to be selective and are less likely to need outside help.

Offered wages keep decelerating

The pressure on pay is easing as well. The average offered hourly wage for vacant positions rose 2.0% year over year to $28.55 in the second quarter, down from 2.2% growth in the first quarter and well off the 7.6% peak recorded in the third quarter of 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

That offered-wage growth now trails the pay gains of the existing workforce. The average hourly wage for all employees, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, rose 3.6% in the second quarter.

The gap suggests employers see less need to pay a premium to attract new hires. For staffing firms, it is a double-edged development: softer wage expectations make candidates easier to place, but they also cap the bill-rate increases that typically lift gross margins on temporary assignments.