CSJ Hiring Index: Canada's hiring pulse rebounds, but the recovery is uneven

After months of subdued momentum, Canada’s hiring appetite is stirring again. The September CSJ Hiring Index rose to 5.4 out of 10, up sharply from 4.8 in August, signaling a tentative shift in employer sentiment as purchasing activity accelerates and some hiring pipelines reopen. Yet beneath the headline, the recovery remains patchy, driven by operations and logistics rather than a broad-based surge.

The latest Ivey PMI climbed to 59.8, its highest level in more than a year, suggesting firms have resumed purchasing after a summer lull. But the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, still below 50, point to continued contraction in output and customer demand. This divergence tells a familiar story: companies are cautiously preparing for future orders while keeping permanent payrolls tight.

Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey added 60,000 jobs in September, yet the unemployment rate held at 7.1 percent: a reminder that much of the hiring remains temporary, or replacement-driven. Wage growth, hovering around 3.3 percent year-over-year, offers little evidence of inflationary pressure but hints at the limits of employer flexibility. Business confidence, measured by the CFIB Barometer, remains below neutral.

What It Means for Staffing Firms

For staffing firms, the turn is meaningful. The rebound in the CSJ Index suggests the market is moving from contraction to cautious expansion. Over the next six months, staffing needs are likely to shift in three directions.